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Fantasy Baseball: Ranking Hayden Birdsong, Mick Abel and other rotation newcomers
Zebby Matthews, Noah Cameron among the other recent rotation additions
By
Scott White
•
1 min read
We've been waiting for something like this to happen at starting pitcher.
It's the position that constantly needs to be supplemented off the waiver wire, both for matchup plays and injury replacements, but the number of pop-up successes had been sorely lacking over the past few weeks, forcing us to rely mostly on uninspiring retreads.
This weekend, the dam broke. Not only were Zebby Matthews, Mick Abel and Noah Cameron called up, finding varying degrees of success, but the Giants also announced that flamethrower Hayden Birdsong would be shifting from the bullpen to the starting rotation. And just a few days earlier, Logan Henderson returned to the Brewers rotation after an all-too-brief initiation in April.
That's five additions to the starting pitcher pool, each thought to have some measure upside. But where do I stand on them? Here's my ranking, 1-5, along some thoughts on each.
Ranking five rotation newcomers
Logan Henderson's start Wednesday was actually his second with the Brewers this season, but the first came almost a month earlier on April 20. Still, a sample of two is more convincing than a sample of one, especially when the two affirm each other. That first start saw him strike out nine over six one-run innings against the Athletics, relying on the same fastball/changeup pairing. He's an unconventional pitching prospect in that he throws hard and mostly just relies on those two offerings. It's why he's never garnered much attention despite a stellar minor-league track record, putting together a 3.00 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 12.1 K/9 across four seasons. But the changeup is a genuine showstopper, and the fastball carries so well through the top of the zone that it's a good bat-misser in its own right. The whole package, complete with plus control, reminds me of Joe Ryan when he first got called up, and given the Brewers rotation's state of disrepair, I doubt Henderson will be sent down so soon this time.
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If you'll think back to Draft Prep season, you may remember that Hayden Birdsong was one of the young pitchers with the most helium, showing big swing-and-miss stuff with greatly improved control (more specifically, 18 strikeouts to zero walks in 12 innings). The Giants' decision to have him begin the year in the bullpen effectively quashed that momentum, but it was always presented as just a starting point. And I'll have you know that in virtually all of my expert leagues where Birdsong was drafted, he remained stashed in anticipation of him moving into the starting rotation someday. Now that it's happening, with the Giants announcing over the weekend that Birdsong will step into Jordan Hicks' rotation spot, will it have been worth the wait? I'll note that Birdsong's control gains from this spring haven't translated so neatly to the regular season, but his entire arsenal -- the fastball, slider and changeup -- has proven capable of missing bats, with the changeup yielding a whiff rate near 50 percent. Birdsong's strikeout upside may be the highest for any of the pitchers mentioned here, and he has relief pitcher eligibility to boot.
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There's a little bit of a drop-off from Birdsong to Zebby Matthews, in part because Matthews thudded so hard in his 2025 debut, but only in part. We also have to account for the fact that he had a 6.69 ERA in nine major-league starts last year, not to mention the warning signs at Triple-A. But how can there be warning signs when he had a 1.93 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 10.5 K/9 there? Well, his ability to miss bats collapsed over his final three starts, resulting in a Andre Pallante-like 9 percent swinging-strike rate, and his trademark control evaporated as well, resulting in a Kodai Senga-like 61 percent strike rate. It's only a three-start sample -- and by no means is this me declaring a final verdict for Matthews, who I'm ranking third here -- but prospects are lumps of clay in constant formation, which allows for the sort of moment-to-moment evaluations that you wouldn't dare consider for an established big-leaguer. Like Birdsong, Matthews was a big riser this spring, and the reason for it (improved velocity) has indeed held up. But might it be compromising the pristine command that elevated him in the first place? It's one theory.
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Mick Abel has the clearest disadvantage among these five in that he doesn't actually have a rotation spot. He came up for a spot start Sunday, and even though it was sensational -- the sort of debut that vaults an also-ran prospect to national prominence -- the Phillies are holding to their commitment of turning the full-time spot instead over to ... Taijuan Walker. Yes, really. On the one hand, Walker's inevitable failure would seem to present Able with an easy path back, but on the other hand, Walker himself is only filling in for Aaron Nola, whose ankle injury doesn't seem so serious. Still, those who picked up Henderson after his first start and stashed him away for a month (and those who are envious of them now) have reason to do the same with Abel, not that it comes with any guarantees. While the 23-year-old has a history as a top-100 prospect (though notably not this year) and was sporting a 2.53 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, he also has a history of control issues that make his 73.8 percent strike rate against the Pirates on Sunday much too good to be true.
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It's not a good sign for Noah Cameron that he ranks behind the pitcher who's already been sent back to the minors. Why is he on the opposite end from Henderson when it's a similar situation? Didn't his return to the majors Sunday validate his debut from a few weeks ago? Shouldn't we just be impressed that Cameron has allowed a combined three hits over 12 2/3 innings? Wowie! The problem is that those three hits have come with five walks and six strikeouts, neither of which makes for a good ratio on its own. And together? Oof. Cameron has been a good minor-league pitcher -- having delivered a 3.31 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 10.5 K/9 in seven starts this year after putting together an even better line last year -- but in a way that hasn't won over evaluators. Like Henderson, his fastball sits in the low 90s. Unlike Henderson, it doesn't get the sort of carry that makes it a bat-misser. In fact, he's thrown it even slower in the majors, averaging just 90.5 mph with it Sunday. Meanwhile, there isn't some A-plus secondary offering, and if the control is suspect as well, I don't see this one working out.
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