28 days until Opening Day ...
Keeping up with everything going on around baseball is tough enough in the best of times, but it's more true during Spring Training than any other time of the year. There are dozens more players on each roster than during the season, they're playing twice as many in any given game, and many of the games aren't even televised.
And then, of course, there's this: Because there's so much to keep track of during this time of the year, it's also harder to figure out what matters and what doesn't. So, here's the plan for the next few weeks: Every Monday in the Fantasy Baseball Today Newsletter, we're going to recap as much news as we think you need to know about, and then every Thursday, we're going to try to focus on a handful of stories that are really gaining traction to see whether they actually matter.
The latter portion starts today, with Spring Training Believe It or Not -- for you multi-sport CBS Fantasy readers, I'm borrowing the conceit from Heath Cummings' excellent football season series. The premise is simple: I'm going to present some of the most interesting, noteworthy, or oft-discussed stories from the previous week, and then I'm going to tell you whether I think they actually matter or not. Simple enough, and if we do this right, we're going to cut through the noise and help you identify what you actually need to know about heading into your drafts. Let's get to it!
Spring Training Believe It or Not
Believe It or Not: Rafael Devers' absence from games is no big deal
Rafael Devers is not mad about the Red Sox potentially asking him to move off third base. Do not put in the newspaper that Rafael Devers got mad about the Red Sox potentially asking him to move off third base. To be honest, that stuff probably doesn't matter – despite Devers' hard-line stance, I don't think there's any chance he doesn't play if the Red Sox do ask him to switch positions.
The concern here is around his shoulders, which are apparently still enough of an issue after an offseason of rest and rehab, that he has been limited in the early part of camp. Whether Devers is still dealing with soreness or if this is more about load management hasn't been clear from the reporting so far, but the hope at this point is that he'll start to play in Grapefruit League games next week, though there isn't a specific timeline for when he'll be cleared to play in the field.
Don't believe it.
I dropped Devers to the bottom of his tier at third base, behind Austin Riley, Jazz Chisholm, and Manny Machado with news that he's being limited by the shoulders. Maybe that's an overreaction, but we're five months removed from him being shut down at the end of last season with an injury that wasn't supposed to require surgery and didn't carry any reported structural damage, so I had assumed it was entirely in the past. It clearly impacted him in the second half, with both his bat speed and arm strength collapsing as the season went on, and if it's still an issue, and it just doesn't feel like we can treat him like there's no concern here. Devers is still a third-round target for me, but he should be the fifth third baseman off the board at least until we see him in game action.
Believe It or Not: Zac Gallen's velocity is a big red flag
A pitcher's velocity being down at the start of Spring Training is pretty typical, but Gallen's decline was more than just typical. He sat at 90.6 mph in his spring debut Monday despite pitching just one inning, down 3.1 mph from last season and 1 mph lower than all but one start in his MLB career. Given Gallen's struggles in 2024, this is pretty concerning, right?
Don't believe it.
I can't say there won't be any reaction to it – Gallen fell to 95th in our H2H mock draft this week, the No. 30 SP, a few spots lower than his SP26 consensus ranking in that format. But I just can't work the energy up to be concerned about a veteran's velocity readings this early in spring. Some guys like to go all out in the spring, but plenty of others are just out there working on stuff. Gallen's arm slot was higher and his extension was lower than we're used to seeing, so I'm fully willing to throw this one on the "He's just working on stuff" pile. There's plenty of skepticism around Gallen as-is, and I wouldn't be surprised if his price continued to drop as spring goes on. But I'm not going to worry after one inning, and you shouldn't either.
Believe It or Not: Clay Holmes is fully prepared to be a starter
Holmes made his spring debut armed with a legitimate six-pitch mix, throwing his typical sinker, slider, and sweeper, while also featuring the four-seamer he introduced during last year's playoffs, plus a new changeup and cutter. For those of you who struggle with math, that's twice as many pitches as Holmes has had for most of his time as a reliever.
Believe it.
It doesn't mean Holmes is definitely going to be as good as a starter as he was as a reliever. We know his sinker, sweeper, and slider were all very good pitches, especially in shorter bursts, and especially when the Yankees could limit his exposure to the toughest left-handed batters in the lineup. All we know about his new arsenal is that it exists, but we can only guess how it'll play, especially since we haven't yet seen what Holmes' stuff looks like when he goes into an outing knowing he's aiming for six innings of work instead of three.
But Holmes' previous approach almost certainly wasn't going to work as a starter, at least not in a way that would make him a difference-maker. All three of the pitches he relied on as a reliever work best when thrown to batters of the same handedness as the pitcher, which is why Ho;mes has a career .589 OPS against righties, compared to a .705 mark against lefties. 59% of his career opponents were RHB, whereas the average right-handed starter actually faced slightly more LHB.
Maybe his four-seamer just won't work as well as his sinker, or maybe he won't be able to command the changeup well enough for it to be anything more than a show-me pitch. But he now has an arsenal that should, at least in theory, give him answers against all kinds of batters, and should give him a bit more flexibility in where he pitches in the zone. Predictability is death for starting pitchers unless they have overwhelming stuff. Holmes is positioned to be much less predictable than he used to be.
Believe It or Not: Sandy Alcantara won't be limited in 2025
The Fantasy Baseball world has been operating under the assumption that Alcantara will have some kind of limitations coming off Tommy John surgery, but maybe that won't be the case. In recent days, Craig Mish of the Marlins broadcast team said he doesn't expect Alcantara to have any pitching restrictions this season, while ESPN's Paul Hembekides says the Marlins have said Alcantara is "full-go" for 2025.
Believe it.
For the most part. There was a quote from Alcantara a few weeks back where he said he will let the team handle his innings early in the season, but then he added, "After that, I think they gotta let me compete." So, don't expect to see Alcantara racking up complete games in April, or anything. But I don't think we'll see him get pulled after 75 pitches and five innings very often, either. And by the summer, I fully expect Alcantara to be treated more or less how he was prior to the injury. Does that mean he'll get to 200 innings? Probably not, but 180 seems like a safe bet if he stays healthy.
He'll be pitching for a bad team, so wins won't be particularly plentiful, and Alcantara has never been a huge strikeout guy – though I do expect significant improvement on his 19.8% mark from 2023, at the very least. Still, Alcantara should be a must-start pitcher this season, and I feel even more confident about that after seeing Alcantara's velocity was actually up in his first spring outing. It could be all-systems-go even earlier than you think.
Believe It or Not: Zac Veen is playing his way into the sleeper discussion
Veen was, once upon a time, a prospect of some renown. And I suppose he technically is a prospect, ranking 99th on Scott White's top-100 prospects list, and was still No. 6 in a weak Rockies system on BaseballProspectus.com. But he hasn't been a particularly big deal in prospect spaces in a few years as injuries have taken a toll on his production and availability. But he's off to a hot start this spring, with a homer and three steals in his first five games, and could be playing his way onto the Rockies roster after being added to the 40-man roster this offseason.
Believe it.
You can't ever count on the Rockies to do the sensible thing and play their young guys, but when you look at the roster … it's hard to see a good case for why Veen can't make the Opening Day 25. To be fair, they do have Nolan Jones and Jordan Beck currently slated for one of the corners, both of whom have some intriguing skills of their own, with all-world defender Brenton Doyle patrolling center, so it's not quite as straightforward as we might like it to be.
But neither Beck nor Jones is such a proven commodity that Veen couldn't overtake them if he keeps impressing this spring. Plus, with Kris Bryant penciled in at DH, there should be opportunities to play at some point. Veen doesn't need to be drafted in most 12-team leagues yet, but in 15-teamers and NL-only leagues, he's certainly a worthwhile flier for your bench, with potential 20-30 upside in an absolute best-case scenario.
Believe It or Not: Triston McKenzie belongs on your late-round radar
McKenzie was a forgotten man for Fantasy when he took the mound to open the spring, with injuries and poor performance making his successful 2022 season feel like it was even longer than three years ago. He pitched through a partially torn ligament in his right elbow and his stuff just wasn't the same, leading to a 5.11 ERA before he was sent down to Triple-A. And, given how often he throws it, his fastball velocity dropping down to 91.1 helps explain most of what went wrong for him in 2024 – he gave up a .652 slugging percentage with that pitch, including 19 homers in 198 PA.
So, seeing the fastball peak at 95.4 mph and sit at 94.2 in his first spring outing, even for just 24 pitches total, seems like a very big deal. That's rarified air for McKenzie, who has only ever sat above 94 mph on average in one start in his MLB career. If he's fixed his weakest skill, does that make McKenzie a viable Fantasy option again?
Believe it.
There are no guarantees here, especially for a player with McKenzie's injury history. But he spent the offseason working on regaining his velocity and getting over the fear of making his elbow worse, and that work seems to have paid off. Oh sure, he probably won't be sitting 94 when the season starts and he's expected to go five-plus every time out, but McKenzie put together a 2.96 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 190 strikeouts in 2022 while averaging 92.5 with the four-seamer in 2022. Add him to the late-round bench stash pile and see if he carries this through the rest of the spring and into April.
Believe It or Not: Bryce Eldridge has a chance to make the Giants Opening Day lineup
Eldridge was only drafted in 2023, and he has only played 17 games above A-ball, and he doesn't turn 21 until October, so it seems like a long shot. But Eldridge is considered advanced for his age, and while he didn't get many reps in the high minors, he did get to Triple-A. And once you've gotten to Triple-A, I always say, you might just be a few good weeks away from getting the call to the majors.
Don't believe it.
Look, it's unlikely. But it's not impossible. Especially when you look at the rest of the Giants roster. They've made some splashes in recent offseasons, but this is not an impenetrable roster. Lamonte Wade is a lock, and while he's penciled in at first base right now, he's played enough outfield that it might not be the end of the world if he had to move there to accommodate Eldridge. Eldridge's glove is probably less ready than his bat, so maybe DH is the answer, and the path there might even be more clear – Wilmer Flores is penciled in there, and even at his best, he's just an average bat. There's nothing wrong with an average bat, but if Eldridge can convince the front office he can be more than average as a 20-year-old, it seems like there's a runway here for a team that seems like they really want to compete for a playoff spot this season. He could be this year's Jackson Merrill, though I'd bet on him opening the season in Triple-A at this point.
Believe It or Not: Chase Dollander has a chance to make the Rockies rotation
The case probably isn't very different from the one for Eldridge, honestly. Dollander is one of the very best pitching prospects in baseball and arguably the most talented pitcher the Rockies have ever had. He has just nine starts at Double-A to his name, but he was dominant, with a 2.25 ERA and 29.1% strikeout rate. He isn't on the 40-man roster, but he's being given a chance to pitch his way into the rotation, and with names like Antonio Senzatela and Austin Gomber at the bottom of the projected Rockies rotation, there's really nothing stopping Dollander except his own readiness.
Believe it.
And he might just be ready. The only reason I could see to keep Dollander down – besides the usual service time shenanigans that still exist – would be to give him a taste of the high altitude he'll have to pitch in Colorado. You'll get a taste of that in Cactus League play, but the Rockies Triple-A affiliate in Albuquerque would be the first opportunity for Dollander to pitch extensively at an elevation close to the mile-high air in Denver. I can see the logic behind letting him get at least a few starts in down there before calling him up for good.
But that's just speculation. In terms of talent and readiness, it doesn't seem like there's too much left for Dollander to learn. He leans heavily on his fastball, which carries all of the ideal traits MLB teams are looking for from a modern fastball, and which could help him overcome the effects of Coors Field, which most commonly impacts breaking balls. The rest of the arsenal is coming along – his curveball has drawn some praise in camp – and if Dollander is at least competitive this spring, I think he's going to have a chance to make the roster. I'd say it's probably close to 50-50 at this point, and while his upside might be limited by Coors Field, it won't be erased. He's worth a late-round look at this point.
