21 days until Opening Day ...
Yesterday, I named Grayson Rodriguez one of my favorite breakout pitchers for 2025. Just 24 hours later, I suddenly have my doubts. Not enough to actually go into yesterday's article to remove Rodriguez from my list, but enough that I do want to be honest with you.
Rodriguez made his second spring start Wednesday, and he just didn't look very good. He averaged just 93.2 mph with his four-seamer in this one, 2.9 mph down from where he was in the regular season in 2024, and a far cry from last spring, when he was hitting the high-90s with regularity – he maxed out at 95.3 mph Wednesday, with one fastball coming in below 90 mph before he was pulled in the second inning.
Rodriguez wasn't injured, but he did admit after the start that he wasn't feeling quite right. He said he felt "sluggish," like he couldn't "really get behind the ball and spin it how I wanted to."
For whatever it's worth, the velocity doesn't seem like that big of a concern to Rodriguez, who isn't at the point in his prep for the season where he is trying to max out his velocity. He's trying to build his arm up and avoid the shoulder/lat issues that have plagued him in two of the past three seasons. That's fair and reasonable, but … it doesn't make me feel especially great about planting a flag on Rodriguez, who needs to take a step forward to justify where I have him ranked. Maybe he'll get it soon, and show it in the next three or so spring outings. But I would be lying if I said I wasn't worried.
I'd also be lying if I said I'm not worried about his teammate, Gunnar Henderson. Henderson was diagnosed Wednesday with a right intercostal strain, suffered last week during a spring game. He hasn't been ruled out for Opening Day – manager Brandon Hyde told reporters he is "very, very hopeful" – but isn't 100% guaranteed he'll be ready. For what it's worth, the average time missed for an intercostal strain for a hitter is 21 days, and if Henderson hit that timetable, there would actually be a few opportunities remaining for him to get into a spring game.
I'm moving Henderson down a few spots, both in the overall rankings and at shortstop, where everything is crowded at the top. But, at least for now, he's more like a late first-rounder until we know for sure he'll be ready for Opening Day.
And with that, let's move on to another look at the state of Average Draft Position for 2025. Below we'll take a look at the biggest risers and fallers in drafts over the past two weeks, plus five players whose price I like and four I'm out on at their current price:
ADP Review
The biggest risers over the past two weeks
We're looking at NFBC ADP from over the past two weeks, compared to the previous two weeks.
Alex Bregman, 3B, BOS – March ADP: 108.23; Feb. ADP: 123.38
Typically, players see their price rise once they sign, and in this case, that actually makes sense. The two other reported contenders for Bregman were the Tigers and Cubs, and both would have been pretty bad landing spots for Bregman's plus-contact, middling-pop approach. But Boston? Well, it's not quite as good as Houston for his swing, but what he figures to lose in the form of a few homers, he should make up for with a boost in batting average. Another round or two of rise wouldn't be unreasonable.
Sandy Alcantara, P, MIA – March ADP: 155.01; Feb. ADP: 174.98
See, now we're starting to get conflicting reports, which is why basing your opinion on unsourced reporting isn't a great idea. Last week, a couple of reporters with close ties to the Marlins suggested Alcantara won't be facing limitations in his workload this season, but Jeff Passan appeared to pour some cold water on that Wednesday, when he said Alcantara will be on an innings limit, "particularly early on in the season." Notably, neither side is quoting anyone specific either way and for his part, Alcantara has already acknowledged he'll likely be somewhat limited for the first couple of months – "After that, I think they gotta let me compete." Alcantara's price is rising more due to the fact that he's healthy and looks like himself this spring – with a new slider grip – but I do wonder if that Passan report might not slow the momentum. I'll take him at his new price, with the expectation that it'll be more like 5-6 innings per start to open the season, rather than the more typical seven-inning outings we would expect from a healthy Alcantara.
Tanner Scott, P, LAD – March ADP: 140.92; Feb. ADP: 158.18
This one is easy enough to figure out: About four weeks ago, Dave Roberts told reporters that Scott would receive the "brunt" of the save opportunities to start the season. We kind of assumed that would be the case after he signed one of the biggest reliever contracts in history, but it was nice to get some confirmation. I don't think this will be a situation where he gets every save all season long, but 20-plus saves with elite ratios and tons of strikeouts has plenty of value, too.
Mike Trout, OF, LAA – March ADP: 99.27; Feb. ADP: 108.85
He's healthy. He hasn't gotten hurt yet. I guess people needed to see him on a field in order to believe it could happen? I dunno, I always think these situations are weird – there wasn't any doubt that Trout would be ready for the start of the season after ending last season due to knee surgery. The question is whether he'll be able to remain healthy in May, June, July, August, and, of course, September. And nothing in the past two weeks has brought us any closer to an answer to that question.
Kenley Jansen, P, LAA – March ADP: 191.76; Feb. ADP: 210.64
A little over two weeks ago, Jansen signed with the Angels. And, wouldn't you know it, then-presumptive Angels closer Ben Joyce has seen his ADP fall from 317.9 to 387.9. Funny how that works.
The biggest fallers over the past two weeks
We'll start with some injury fallers first:
Frankie Montas Jr., P, NYM – March ADP: 593.74; Feb. ADP: 418.28
I was mildly interested in Montas as a sleeper with a chance to rediscover his splitter in the Mets pitching development system, but with no chance to see it this spring while he recovers from a lat injury, it's hard to take even a late-round flier on him.
Giancarlo Stanton, UT, NYY – March ADP: 547.52; Feb. ADP: 387.72
Stanton is dealing with injuries to both of his elbows, and he had a PRP injection earlier this week to try to accelerate the healing process. He's out for Opening Day, and there's no timetable for a return at this point. Folks are rightly not expecting anything from the oft-injured slugger at this point.
Kutter Crawford, P, BOS – March ADP: 438.13; Feb. ADP: 337.65
Crawford looks unlikely to be ready for Opening Day due to soreness in his right knee, an injury that dates back to last season. Given the lingering nature of the injury and Crawford's relatively low ceiling as a pitcher, he just isn't the kind of name you need to stash unless you have plenty of IL spots to play with. Keep an eye on the back end of the Red Sox rotation, because both Richard Fitts and Quinn Priester are throwing harder this spring and could have some deep-league appeal.
Luis Gil, P, NYY – March ADP: 260.66; Feb. ADP: 205.81
Gil will be shut down for at least six weeks with a "high-grade lat strain", the team announced Tuesday. According to BaseballProspectus' Recovery Dashboard tool, pitchers miss an average of 74 days with a lat strain, and because Gil will likely have to build back up whenever he's healthy, that sounds something like a best-case scenario timetable if he's cleared to throw in six weeks. We're likely looking at a mid-May return at the earliest, from a pitcher who already had plenty of performance concerns.
Sean Manaea, P, NYM – March ADP: 235.16; Feb. ADP: 188.88
Manaea hasn't been fully ruled out for Opening Day, but it sure looks unlikely he'll be ready with this oblique injury. He'll be shut down for another one or two weeks and then build back up, so mid-April looks like a best-case scenario. The mid-season turnaround Manaea had after lowering his arm slot last summer was one of the more intriguing examples of a skill change we saw last season, but it was also a super-small sample size. And with his prep for the season being disrupted, I think a dip even further than this wouldn't be unwarranted.
And now for some players falling for (mostly) non-injury reasons:
Jordan Lawlar, SS, ARZ – March ADP: 485.26; Feb. ADP: 399.5
The Diamondbacks signing Geraldo Perdomo to a big extension doesn't necessarily mean Lawlar doesn't have a path to immediate playing time, but it does mean he probably needs an injury. He's blocked at shortstop for the foreseeable future, and at third base for at least 2025; in theory, there could be some room for him in the outfield, but Lawlar has never played there as a professional. At this point, it seems safe to assume he won't be on the Opening Day roster – and after he played just 23 games last season, that's probably not the worst thing in the world – but he could be on the verge of getting the call at any point should the need arise. And, if he starts to spend time in the outfield in the minors, that would only enhance his stash appeal.
Rafael Devers, 3B, BOS – March ADP: 35.66; Feb. ADP: 31.62
I moved Devers down last week, and though after he delayed his spring debut Wednesday, I don't expect I'll be moving him up. I think he'll be ready for the start of the season, but the fact that his shoulders are still bothering him after an offseason of rest and rehab just feels like a big red flag. I would still take him in the first three rounds, but he's at the end of a tier that includes Jazz Chisholm, Austin Riley, and Manny Machado.
Spencer Steer, 1B/OF, CIN – March ADP: 130.18; Feb. ADP: 116.93
Steer is similarly trying to play through a shoulder injury from last season, and Steer looks like he might actually be in some doubt for Opening Day. He had a cortisone shot in the shoulder Saturday and will be re-evaluated in the coming days to determine when he might be able to start throwing again. Steer's versatility has been a boon for his playing time, but it sounds like there's a real chance he may be limited to first base to open the season if he's ready, and that introduces some playing time risk here if he struggles. I'm moving Steer down even lower than this latest ADP.
Roki Sasaki, P, LAD – March ADP: 108.02; Feb. ADP: 101.41
Yeah, this is gonna start moving back up. Sasaki sparkled in his spring debut, striking out five over three innings, sitting in the high 90s, and showcasing that all-world splitter. That pitch is ridiculous, and while I still have my reservations about drafting him inside of the top 100, I have little doubt that's where he's going to settle after that debut.
Carlos Rodon, P, NYY – March ADP: 146.71; Feb. ADP: 141.58
I'm not sure what's going on here. It's a relatively small drop, but I'm not sure there's much to justify it. Rodon is struggling in the spring, but two spring starts very much should not change how you view any player, even one whose velocity is down a bit in the early going. Rodon was better than you think once he ditched his cutter – 2.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP with 83 strikeouts in 68 innings in the second half – so I'll take a discount on him.
Five more values I like
For this one, we're using FantasyPros.com's Consensus ADP.
Jackson Holliday, 2B, Orioles – ADP: 196.3
Holliday is off to a solid start to the spring, and it sure looks like he has a clear path to a starting job as long as he doesn't flop. Manager Brandon Hyde has singled him out as a player he wants to see running more, so if he can keep the strikeouts manageable, there's still a ton of upside here with the still-just-21-year-old.
Isaac Paredes, 3B, Astros – ADP: 186.8
Paredes is slowly creeping up draft boards, but not nearly fast enough – over the past two weeks in NFBC drafts, he's at 175.97, up from 178.94 in the previous two weeks. We here at FBT HQ have been extolling Paredes' virtues since he joined the Astros – Scott White's Sleepers 2.0 column will get you up to speed if you've missed it. Paredes is a perfect fit for Houston's ballpark and has a legitimate chance to get back to being the 30-homer guy he was in Tampa. He should be going around where Jake Burger is, not some 60 picks later.
Carlos Correa, SS, Twins – ADP: 238.5
Correa is also a sleeper for Scott, and for me – you can read more about why I like Correa in Sleepers 2.0. There are concerns about his ability to stay healthy, of course, but Correa is currently healthy, and after a down 2023, reminded us he can still be an impactful hitter when healthy last season. If he stays on the field, you might get a .290 average and 25-plus homers from him, and there just isn't that kind of upside available this late in most drafts.
Kevin Gausman, SP, Blue Jays – ADP: 150.5
I'm starting to talk myself into Gausman again. He pitched through a shoulder issue and never seemed right last season, but his velocity was already up 1 mph in his first spring start, a good sign that he's feeling better. Gausman's mechanics were a bit off, and it messed with the effectiveness of both his fastball and splitter, but if he can get those back, there is still plenty of upside left in this arm.
Jeff Hoffman, RP, Blue Jays – ADP: 203.0
I remain truly baffled by Hoffman's price. There's no doubt that he's the closer for a team we expect to compete for a playoff spot, and as I pointed out in yesterday's Breakouts 2.0 newsletter, Hoffman ranks 11th or higher among 144 qualifiers in the past two seasons in strikeout rate, K-BB%, ERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA. We're talking about one of the very best relievers in baseball, and while there is certainly some injury concern here after the Braves and Orioles backed out of deals with Hoffman due to concerns about his shoulder, it's not like there aren't injury concerns for the likes of Felix Bautista (101.8 ADP) or Mason Miller (75.0). Hoffman's ceiling isn't much lower than these two, but his price sure is.
Worst Values
Garrett Crochet, SP, Red Sox – ADP: 36.5
And it's even higher in NFBC leagues, where Crochet is up to 29.2 as the No. 4 SP off the board. Crochet is an incredible talent, but a third-round pick is just way too much to pay for a guy who has never had to be a starting pitcher for a full season. He got to 146 innings last season, but remember, he was basically unusable for Fantasy over the final three months, as his ratios collapsed amid the White Sox's plan to limit him to just four innings per start. The upside here is significant, but the truth is, we just don't have any idea how Crochet is going to respond to being asked to go six innings every five or six days for six months. Maybe he'll continue to dominate, but I just can't bring myself to pay this kind of price for something a player has never come close to doing.
Shota Imanaga, SP, Cubs – ADP: 67.5
I think we saw more or less the best-case scenario for Imanaga in 2024, as he benefited from being an almost wholly unique pitcher – basically, no lefties throw from the arm slot he does, and the ones who do definitely don't have a splitter like his. Familiarity breeds comfort for hitters, and I just have this sneaking suspicion that the second go round the league isn't going to go quite as smoothly for Imanaga. I think he's a decent No. 3 starter for Fantasy, but I prefer him at least a round – ideally two – later than this price.
Yainer Diaz, C, Astros – ADP: 76.0
I know, we're supposed to have considered every angle of every player's value long before this point in draft season, but I came to a realization that has me rethinking how much I like Diaz recently. With the Astros talking about the need to keep Yordan Alvarez confined to the DH spot as often as possible, there might not be very much room for Diaz to play non-catcher positions in 2025. Of his 146 starts in 2024, 47 came at either DH or first base – the latter of which is also now occupied by Christian Walker, a big improvement over the team's options in 2024. I'm not saying Diaz won't ever play 1B or DH, but I think his playing time edge over most of the position is less secure than we've been assuming this offseason. I'd be more comfortable with him at least a round later than this.
Lane Thomas, OF, Guardians – ADP: 165.0
I really don't know how safe Thomas' playing time is, even in a Cleveland team not exactly overflowing with options. It helps that he's probably the team's best option at center field, but it is worth noting that he started 43 of 56 games after being traded to Cleveland. And Thomas might just be a platoon bat, with a career .680 OPS against right-handed pitching, 200 points lower than his mark against lefties. Add it all up with the fact that he stole just four bases in 53 games with the Guardians, and I just see way more ways for this to go wrong than right, even at a reasonable enough ADP.
