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When is a hot start just a hot start? When is it something more? That's one of the toughest questions Fantasy Baseball players face at this point in the year because answering it correctly could make a huge difference in how the rest of your season goes.

Let's take Tyler Soderstrom as an example. He's been one of the very best hitters in the league this season, ranking as the No. 1 first baseman in Fantasy and a top-five hitter overall, and he's doing so after being largely an afterthought in most drafts. His 281.1 ADP coming into the season means he was drafted in most 12-team leagues, but certainly not all of them. In CBS Fantasy leagues, Soderstrom was just 45% rostered to open the season, and he looked more like a fringe corner infield option with some upside, but not a potential superstar. 

But he's hitting like a superstar right now for sure. Through his first 19 games, Soderstrom's .468 wOBA is backed up by a .439 xwOBA, the 10th-best mark in baseball, sandwiched between Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker. That's elite company, and he's earned his production so far, ranking in the 87th percentile or better in average exit velocity, barrel rate, expected batting average, and expected slugging percentage. And he's doing it with really strong plate discipline, striking out in just 18.4% of his trips to the plate.

Which is to say, if Soderstrom were breaking out, this is exactly what he'd look like. He flashed plus power and a good approach at the plate last season, and was a prospect of some renown before that, peaking as the No. 21 prospect in Baseball America's 2022 preseason ranking. This isn't entirely out of nowhere. 

But it's probably not entirely real, either. Soderstrom is probably just hot in the traditional meaning of the word. Locked in. On a heater. Whatever term you want to use for it, that's probably what we're seeing in the early going, especially since Soderstrom has had just 16.5% of his plate appearances come against left-handed pitching so far; Matt Olson, who played every day last season, had 27.3% of his PA come against lefties, just to establish a baseline. 

That's not to say Soderstrom is going to fall apart whenever he starts facing more lefties, but it's one reason to expect his hot start to slow down eventually. The other, biggest reason to expect him to slow down: Plain old regression. 

We see it every season, and we have to be reminded every season that hot April doesn't necessarily mean a player will be a dominant force all season long. At this same point in 2024, Ryan O'Hearn, Tyler O'Neill, Michael Busch, LaMonte Wade, Jess Winker, Gavin Sheets, and Jake Cronenworth were all in the top-20 among hitters with at least 50 PA in expected wOBA, for example, and none of them kept that pace up. 

A bunch of those guys had long track records that made it easier to see they wouldn't keep it up, of course, but Busch is an instructive case. Like Soderstrom, Busch was a young, recent top prospect who was hitting the cover off the ball for the first few weeks, and while he did have a breakout season, he wasn't exactly a must-start player the rest of the way – from April 20 on, Busch hit .239/.326/.408. His hot start wasn't fake in that he was hitting the ball well enough to earn his production, but it did turn out to be a fluke, despite the good underlying numbers. 

That's not to say the same is true of Soderstrom. But if you're out there looking to make a trade involving him, it's worth keeping in mind that while he might be a must-start player the rest of the way, it probably isn't the likeliest outcome. I've moved him way up in my rest-of-season trade values, but I bet there will be some grumbling among you that I still have the likes of Triston Casas, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Christian Walker ahead of him. 

Maybe I'll end up wrong, and Soderstrom will go on to hit 35 homers and establish himself as one of the elite options at the position for the next half-decade or so. It's certainly within the realm of possibility. But I'm not ready to rank him that way, hot start or not. 

H2H Trade Values Chart

RankingPlayerValueEligible
1Aaron Judge46DH-OF
2Shohei Ohtani46DH-SP
3Bobby Witt45SS
4Jose Ramirez413B-DH
5Juan Soto41OF
6Kyle Tucker40OF
7Yordan Alvarez37DH-OF
8Corbin Carroll37OF
9Francisco Lindor37SS
10Gunnar Henderson35SS
11Elly De La Cruz32SS
12Mookie Betts30OF-SS
13Vladimir Guerrero301B-DH
14Fernando Tatis28OF
15Bryce Harper261B
16Ketel Marte262B-DH
17Julio Rodriguez25OF
18Jarren Duran25OF
19Tarik Skubal25SP
20Zack Wheeler25SP
21Jackson Chourio25OF
22Paul Skenes25SP
23Austin Riley243B
24Matt Olson241B
25Freddie Freeman241B
26Corey Seager23SS
27Manny Machado233B-DH
28William Contreras23C-DH
29Jackson Merrill22OF
30Trea Turner21SS
31Jose Altuve212B-OF
32Jazz Chisholm212B-3B-OF
33Logan Gilbert21SP
34Ronald Acuna21OF
35Rafael Devers213B-DH
36Cole Ragans21SP
37Garrett Crochet20SP
38Corbin Burnes20SP
39Chris Sale20SP
40Dylan Cease20SP
41Marcell Ozuna20DH
42Kyle Schwarber20DH
43Brent Rooker20DH
44Michael King19SP
45Ozzie Albies192B
46Pete Alonso191B
47Blake Snell18SP
48James Wood18OF
49Teoscar Hernandez17OF
50Framber Valdez17SP
51Hunter Greene17SP
52Max Fried17SP
53Spencer Schwellenbach17SP
54Logan Webb17SP
55Adley Rutschman16C-DH
56Jacob deGrom16SP
57Emmanuel Clase16RP
58Shota Imanaga16SP
59Seiya Suzuki16DH-OF
60Alex Bregman163B
61Edwin Diaz16RP
62Yoshinobu Yamamoto16SP
63Spencer Strider16SP
64Aaron Nola16SP
65Devin Williams16RP
66Freddy Peralta16SP
67Hunter Brown16SP
68Joe Ryan16SP
69Luis Castillo16SP
70Lawrence Butler15OF
71Wyatt Langford15DH-OF
72Pablo Lopez15SP
73Josh Hader15RP
74Kris Bubic15RP
75Zac Gallen15SP
76Michael Harris15OF
77Christian Yelich15DH-OF
78Mason Miller15RP
79Willy Adames15SS
80Josh Naylor151B
81Christian Walker151B
82Riley Greene15DH-OF
83Marcus Semien152B
84Jordan Westburg152B-3B
85Anthony Santander15DH-OF
86George Kirby15SP
87Junior Caminero153B
88Tyler Glasnow15SP
89Bryce Miller15SP
90Triston Casas151B
91Oneil Cruz15OF-SS
92Bryan Reynolds15DH-OF
93Cristopher Sanchez15SP
94Bailey Ober15SP
95Salvador Perez151B-C-DH
96Andres Munoz15RP
97Raisel Iglesias15RP
98Bo Bichette15SS
99Brandon Nimmo15OF
100Vinnie Pasquantino151B-DH
101Sandy Alcantara15SP
102Ryan Helsley15RP
103Mike Trout15OF
104Cody Bellinger151B-DH-OF
105Carlos Rodon15SP
106Jack Flaherty15SP
107Will Smith15C
108Ian Happ15OF
109Bryan Woo15SP
110Tanner Bibee15SP
111Steven Kwan15OF
112Robbie Ray15SP
113Yusei Kikuchi15SP
114Mark Vientos153B
115Randy Arozarena15OF
116Luis Robert15OF
117Seth Lugo15SP
118Matt McLain152B-SS
119C.J. Abrams15SS
120Cal Raleigh15C-DH
121Willson Contreras151B-C-DH
122J.T. Realmuto14C
123Adolis Garcia14DH-OF
124Yainer Diaz14C-DH
125Pete Crow-Armstrong14OF
126Isaac Paredes143B
127Eugenio Suarez143B
128Matt Chapman143B
129Jeff Hoffman14RP
130Jack Leiter14SP
131Roki Sasaki14SP
132Jasson Dominguez14OF
133Dylan Crews14OF
134Ryan Walker14RP
135Tommy Edman132B-OF
136Zach Eflin13SP
137Jung Hoo Lee12OF
138Tyler O'Neill12OF
139Nathan Eovaldi11SP
140Tanner Houck11SP
141Tyler Soderstrom101B
142Paul Goldschmidt91B
143Royce Lewis93B-DH
144Xander Bogaerts82B-SS
145Alec Bohm83B
146Shane Baz8SP
147Ryan Pepiot8SP
148Jake Burger81B-3B-DH
149Nick Castellanos8OF
150Brenton Doyle8OF
151Dansby Swanson8SS
152Lars Nootbaar8OF
153Taylor Ward8OF
154Sonny Gray8SP
155Kristian Campbell82B
156Nick Lodolo8SP
157Jhoan Duran8RP
158Robert Suarez7RP
159Bowden Francis7RP-SP
160Xavier Edwards7SS
161Carlos Correa7SS
162Nico Hoerner72B
163Anthony Volpe6SS
164Ezequiel Tovar6SS
165Trevor Megill6RP
166Zachary Neto6SS
167Gavin Williams5SP
168Spencer Torkelson51B
169Luis Arraez51B-2B-DH
170Nick Pivetta5SP
171Felix Bautista5RP
172Clay Holmes5RP
173Shea Langeliers5C
174Brandon Lowe52B-DH
175Justin Verlander5SP
176Jackson Holliday52B-SS
177Jonathan India52B-3B-OF
178Nolan Arenado53B
179Luis Rengifo52B-3B
180Grayson Rodriguez5SP
181Max Muncy53B
182Andres Gimenez52B
183Jesus Luzardo5SP
184Dennis Santana5RP
185MacKenzie Gore5SP
186Kyle Manzardo4DH
187Kevin Gausman4SP
188Cedric Mullins4OF
189Bryson Stott42B
190Cam Smith43B-OF
191Taj Bradley4SP
192Tyler Stephenson4C
193Kodai Senga3SP
194Max Meyer3SP
195Grant Holmes3RP-SP
196Jeffrey Springs3SP
197Logan O'Hoppe3C
198Masyn Winn3SS
199Jeremy Pena3SS
200Spencer Steer31B-DH-OF
201Heliot Ramos3OF
202Jose Berrios3SP
203Brandon Pfaadt3SP
204Brice Turang32B
205Luis Garcia32B
206Ben Rice31B-DH
207Yandy Diaz31B-DH
208Michael Conforto3DH-OF
209Josh Jung33B
210Jose Alvarado3RP
211Mitch Keller3SP
212J.J. Bleday3OF
213Trevor Story3SS
214Victor Robles3OF
215Ronel Blanco3SP
216Michael Busch31B
217Christian Encarnacion-Strand31B
218Lane Thomas3OF
219George Springer3DH-OF
220Alec Burleson31B-DH-OF
221Byron Buxton3OF
222Michael Toglia31B
223Clarke Schmidt3SP
224Pete Fairbanks3RP
225Jackson Jobe3RP

Roto Trade Values Chart

RankingPlayerValueEligible
1Aaron Judge48DH-OF
2Shohei Ohtani48DH-SP
3Bobby Witt48SS
4Jose Ramirez403B-DH
5Kyle Tucker38OF
6Elly De La Cruz37SS
7Fernando Tatis34OF
8Corbin Carroll34OF
9Juan Soto33OF
10Julio Rodriguez33OF
11Gunnar Henderson33SS
12Francisco Lindor33SS
13Yordan Alvarez33DH-OF
14Vladimir Guerrero301B-DH
15Mookie Betts30OF-SS
16Jarren Duran29OF
17Jackson Chourio29OF
18Bryce Harper271B
19Trea Turner26SS
20Tarik Skubal26SP
21Zack Wheeler26SP
22Paul Skenes26SP
23Jazz Chisholm262B-3B-OF
24Jackson Merrill25OF
25Austin Riley253B
26Ronald Acuna24OF
27Matt Olson231B
28Freddie Freeman231B
29William Contreras23C-DH
30Corey Seager23SS
31Manny Machado233B-DH
32Jose Altuve232B-OF
33Rafael Devers233B-DH
34Logan Gilbert21SP
35Ozzie Albies212B
36Ketel Marte212B-DH
37Cole Ragans21SP
38Marcell Ozuna19DH
39Pete Alonso191B
40C.J. Abrams18SS
41Michael Harris18OF
42Oneil Cruz18OF-SS
43Brent Rooker18DH
44Kyle Schwarber18DH
45Emmanuel Clase17RP
46Chris Sale15SP
47Garrett Crochet15SP
48Corbin Burnes15SP
49Dylan Cease15SP
50Adley Rutschman15C-DH
51Framber Valdez15SP
52Michael King15SP
53Yoshinobu Yamamoto15SP
54James Wood15OF
55Teoscar Hernandez15OF
56Devin Williams15RP
57Josh Hader15RP
58Edwin Diaz15RP
59Mason Miller15RP
60Andres Munoz15RP
61Raisel Iglesias15RP
62Ryan Helsley15RP
63Wyatt Langford15DH-OF
64Jacob deGrom15SP
65Max Fried15SP
66Jordan Westburg152B-3B
67Marcus Semien152B
68Anthony Santander15DH-OF
69Bo Bichette15SS
70Hunter Greene15SP
71Spencer Schwellenbach15SP
72Spencer Strider15SP
73Logan Webb15SP
74Salvador Perez151B-C-DH
75Lawrence Butler15OF
76Willy Adames15SS
77Seiya Suzuki15DH-OF
78Brenton Doyle15OF
79Shota Imanaga15SP
80Freddy Peralta15SP
81Hunter Brown15SP
82Joe Ryan15SP
83Pablo Lopez15SP
84Blake Snell15SP
85Yainer Diaz15C-DH
86Jeff Hoffman15RP
87Jhoan Duran15RP
88Bryce Miller15SP
89Riley Greene15DH-OF
90Josh Naylor151B
91Junior Caminero153B
92Zac Gallen15SP
93Bryan Reynolds15DH-OF
94Luis Robert15OF
95Alex Bregman153B
96Christian Walker151B
97Triston Casas151B
98Tyler Glasnow15SP
99Luis Castillo15SP
100George Kirby15SP
101Cristopher Sanchez15SP
102Jack Flaherty15SP
103Vinnie Pasquantino151B-DH
104Tanner Bibee15SP
105Aaron Nola15SP
106Cal Raleigh15C-DH
107Willson Contreras151B-C-DH
108Bailey Ober15SP
109Will Smith15C
110Cody Bellinger151B-DH-OF
111Mike Trout15OF
112Mark Vientos153B
113Christian Yelich15DH-OF
114Randy Arozarena15OF
115Sonny Gray15SP
116Ian Happ15OF
117Bryan Woo15SP
118J.T. Realmuto15C
119Robert Suarez14RP
120Ryan Walker14RP
121Matt McLain142B-SS
122Felix Bautista14RP
123Sandy Alcantara14SP
124Robbie Ray14SP
125Tyler Soderstrom141B
126Kodai Senga14SP
127Steven Kwan14OF
128Jasson Dominguez14OF
129Yusei Kikuchi14SP
130Eugenio Suarez133B
131Matt Chapman133B
132Isaac Paredes133B
133Pete Crow-Armstrong12OF
134Tommy Edman112B-OF
135Shea Langeliers11C
136Jurickson Profar10OF
137Dylan Crews10OF
138Tanner Scott9RP
139Trevor Megill9RP
140Kristian Campbell92B
141Brice Turang82B
142Xavier Edwards8SS
143Carlos Rodon7SP
144Shane Baz7SP
145Seth Lugo7SP
146Luis Garcia72B
147Xander Bogaerts72B-SS
148Nick Castellanos7OF
149Adolis Garcia7DH-OF
150Dansby Swanson7SS
151Spencer Steer71B-DH-OF
152Jake Burger71B-3B-DH
153Nico Hoerner72B
154Alec Bohm73B
155Logan O'Hoppe7C
156Kenley Jansen7RP
157Spencer Arrighetti7SP
158Kris Bubic7RP
159Pete Fairbanks7RP
160Nick Pivetta7SP
161Tyler O'Neill7OF
162Brandon Nimmo7OF
163Ezequiel Tovar7SS
164Anthony Volpe7SS
165Carlos Correa7SS
166Kevin Gausman6SP
167Roki Sasaki6SP
168Brandon Lowe62B-DH
169Jackson Holliday62B-SS
170Royce Lewis63B-DH
171Jose Alvarado6RP
172Nathan Eovaldi6SP
173Andres Gimenez62B
174Bryson Stott62B
175Paul Goldschmidt51B
176Luis Rengifo52B-3B
177Spencer Torkelson51B
178Ben Rice51B-DH
179Luis Arraez51B-2B-DH
180Nick Lodolo5SP
181Ryan Pepiot5SP
182Jesus Luzardo5SP
183Cedric Mullins5OF
184Chris Bassitt5SP
185Taj Bradley5SP
186Sean Murphy5C
187Ivan Herrera5C
188Jung Hoo Lee5OF
189Jonathan India52B-3B-OF
190Jorge Soler5DH-OF
191Justin Martinez5RP
192Michael Toglia41B
193Yandy Diaz41B-DH
194Alec Burleson41B-DH-OF
195Heliot Ramos4OF
196Austin Wells4C
197David Bednar4RP
198Jeremy Pena4SS
199Zachary Neto4SS
200Ceddanne Rafaela4OF-SS
201Taylor Ward4OF
202Masyn Winn4SS
203MacKenzie Gore4SP
204Victor Scott II4OF
205Lars Nootbaar4OF
206Kerry Carpenter4DH-OF
207A.J. Puk3RP
208Clay Holmes3RP
209Ryan Pressly3RP
210Michael Conforto3DH-OF
211Lane Thomas3OF
212Shane McClanahan3SP
213Grayson Rodriguez3SP
214Max Meyer3SP
215Gavin Williams3SP
216Zach Eflin3SP
217Dustin May3SP
218Bowden Francis3RP-SP
219Byron Buxton3OF
220Jackson Jobe3RP
221Lucas Erceg3RP
222Kyren Paris32B
223Tyler Fitzgerald32B-SS
224Trevor Story3SS
225Nolan Arenado33B
226Cam Smith33B-OF
227Jordan Walker3OF
228Colton Cowser3OF
229Josh Jung33B
230Carlos Estevez2RP
231Aroldis Chapman2RP
232Luke Jackson2RP
233Kyle Finnegan2RP
234Jeffrey Springs2SP
235Brandon Pfaadt2SP
236Kyle Manzardo2DH
237Jack Leiter2SP
238Tyler Mahle2SP
239Casey Mize2SP
240Mitch Keller2SP
241Tanner Houck2SP
242J.J. Bleday2OF
243Hunter Goodman2C-DH-OF
244Tyler Stephenson2C
245TJ Friedl2OF
246Ronel Blanco2SP
247Maikel Garcia22B-3B-OF
248Dennis Santana2RP
249Gabriel Moreno2C
250Michael Busch21B