Every MLB season is different, but things seem to be settling down a bit, finally. For a few years there, we saw significant changes in the nature of the game, both due to rule changes like the shift ban, sticky-stuff crackdown, and baserunning rules, and due to seemingly minute changes to the physical makeup of the baseball itself.
In 2024, the league-wide batting average fell to .243, matching a 50-year low, while league-wide homer totals fell from 5,868 to 5,453 -- still the 10th-highest mark over the past 50 seasons, but also lower than 2016, 2018, 2023, 2021, 2017, and 2019 over the past decade. That's the bad news.
The good news? Stolen bases rose yet again, with 3,617 steals across the league, the most since 1915. Those rule changes have had the desired effect, and I'll be interested to see if that rise continues, or if we've reached a new status quo -- with the league-wide success rate still sitting at 79%, I certainly don't think we're going to see a slow-down.
League-wide strikeout rates also ticked down from 2023, dropping to 22.6% from 22.7%. Despite continued increases in velocity and the use of non-fastballs, strikeouts seem to have taken a semi-permanent step back from the highs of the late 2010s and early 2020s -- the universal DH has probably played a part in this.
On the whole, it seems we've reached a place of some stability when it comes to the offensive environment around baseball. We can't say that for certain, of course, but we probably shouldn't expect any dramatic changes from 2024 to 2025. So, let's take a look at what the Fantasy Baseball landscape looked like in 2024 to try to identify some targets for 2025:
I took a look at all 12-team, 5x5 Roto leagues played on CBSSports.com in 2024, to look at what the average league's results looked like in each category. Here's what your average league looked like in 2023:
12-team, CBS Fantasy Leagues
(Note: This is for 12-team leagues. I've included a chart for 2024 results based on NFBC Main Event leagues, which are 15-team leagues, at the bottom of this story for those of you playing in deeper leagues.)
| R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | W | S | K | ERA | WHIP | |
| 1 | 1079 | 319 | 1052 | 229 | 0.265 | 102 | 98 | 1510 | 3.293 | 1.106 |
| 2 | 1044 | 303 | 1009 | 207 | 0.261 | 97 | 87 | 1457 | 3.420 | 1.133 |
| 3 | 1024 | 292 | 991 | 193 | 0.259 | 95 | 81 | 1417 | 3.513 | 1.150 |
| 4 | 1001 | 284 | 972 | 184 | 0.256 | 91 | 75 | 1388 | 3.583 | 1.164 |
| 5 | 991 | 277 | 950 | 175 | 0.255 | 89 | 69 | 1360 | 3.649 | 1.176 |
| 6 | 970 | 269 | 932 | 167 | 0.253 | 86 | 64 | 1333 | 3.707 | 1.187 |
| 7 | 955 | 261 | 913 | 160 | 0.251 | 84 | 60 | 1298 | 3.774 | 1.198 |
| 8 | 935 | 255 | 898 | 152 | 0.250 | 81 | 54 | 1270 | 3.840 | 1.211 |
| 9 | 918 | 244 | 874 | 145 | 0.248 | 78 | 47 | 1229 | 3.909 | 1.224 |
| 10 | 893 | 238 | 854 | 135 | 0.246 | 75 | 41 | 1192 | 3.982 | 1.237 |
| 11 | 860 | 224 | 821 | 124 | 0.244 | 71 | 31 | 1136 | 4.079 | 1.255 |
| 12 | 807 | 206 | 765 | 105 | 0.240 | 63 | 18 | 1029 | 4.218 | 1.279 |
For some context, here's how things changed from the average results in 2023:
First in the hitting categories:
| R | Change from 2023 | HR | Change from 2023 | RBI | Change from 2023 | SB | Change from 2023 | AVG | Change from 2023 | |
| 1 | 1079 | 19 | 319 | 5 | 1052 | 14 | 229 | 8 | 0.265 | -0.006 |
| 2 | 1044 | -10 | 303 | 5 | 1009 | 9 | 207 | 5 | 0.261 | -0.006 |
| 3 | 1024 | 14 | 292 | -3 | 991 | 14 | 193 | 8 | 0.259 | -0.006 |
| 4 | 1001 | 10 | 284 | -3 | 972 | 7 | 184 | 10 | 0.256 | -0.006 |
| 5 | 991 | 46 | 277 | 3 | 950 | 6 | 175 | 13 | 0.255 | -0.006 |
| 6 | 970 | 2 | 269 | 2 | 932 | 8 | 167 | 13 | 0.253 | -0.006 |
| 7 | 955 | 0 | 261 | 0 | 913 | -3 | 160 | 12 | 0.251 | -0.006 |
| 8 | 935 | 13 | 255 | 3 | 898 | 22 | 152 | 18 | 0.250 | -0.006 |
| 9 | 918 | 18 | 244 | -5 | 874 | -21 | 145 | 12 | 0.248 | -0.006 |
| 10 | 893 | 9 | 238 | -6 | 854 | -3 | 135 | 10 | 0.246 | -0.004 |
| 11 | 860 | -2 | 224 | -5 | 821 | -2 | 124 | 13 | 0.244 | -0.004 |
| 12 | 807 | 0 | 206 | -1 | 765 | -15 | 105 | 7 | 0.240 | -0.004 |
And for the pitching categories:
| W | Change from 2023 | S | Change from 2023 | K | Change from 2023 | ERA | Change from 2023 | WHIP | Change from 2023 | |
| 1 | 102 | 5 | 98 | 7 | 1510 | 41 | 3.293 | -0.163 | 1.106 | -0.047 |
| 2 | 97 | 7 | 87 | 2 | 1457 | 46 | 3.420 | -0.162 | 1.133 | -0.045 |
| 3 | 95 | 6 | 81 | 2 | 1417 | 73 | 3.513 | -0.183 | 1.150 | -0.045 |
| 4 | 91 | 14 | 75 | 4 | 1388 | 25 | 3.583 | -0.197 | 1.164 | -0.045 |
| 5 | 89 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 1360 | 55 | 3.649 | -0.222 | 1.176 | -0.044 |
| 6 | 86 | 5 | 64 | 4 | 1333 | 22 | 3.707 | -0.230 | 1.187 | -0.044 |
| 7 | 84 | 4 | 60 | 0 | 1298 | 49 | 3.774 | -0.223 | 1.198 | -0.043 |
| 8 | 81 | 5 | 54 | 5 | 1270 | 18 | 3.840 | -0.215 | 1.211 | -0.040 |
| 9 | 78 | 3 | 47 | -1 | 1229 | 23 | 3.909 | -0.216 | 1.224 | -0.039 |
| 10 | 75 | 3 | 41 | -2 | 1192 | 29 | 3.982 | -0.223 | 1.237 | -0.040 |
| 11 | 71 | 6 | 31 | -2 | 1136 | 19 | 4.079 | -0.257 | 1.255 | -0.040 |
| 12 | 63 | 0 | 18 | -4 | 1029 | 9 | 4.218 | -0.210 | 1.279 | -0.038 |
Some of the changes from one year to the next don't matter too much -- run scoring was down a bit in 2024, and pitching was a bit easier to find as a result, but that also meant you had to have better pitching to compete in each category.
To finish in first place in each category, you would have had to average 77 runs, 23 homers, 75 RBI, and 16 steals from each spot in your lineup, while hitting .265. That may not sound like much, but Shohei Ohtani, Jose Ramirez, Gunnar Henderson, Francisco Lindor, Bobby Witt, and Jackson Merrill were the only players to actually hit all five of those benchmarks in 2024. True five-category production is hard to find, though, of course, having Ohtani on your team meant the benchmark for every other lineup spot would be lower -- the rest of your team would have had to average 73 runs, 20 homers, 71 RBI, and 13 steals if you had Ohtani.
Of course, you don't have to finish in first place in every category to win your league. In fact, you don't have to win any category to win your league. Let's look, not at what it took to win every category, but where every league-winning team finished in each category in 2024. Here's their average standings points for each category (12 points for first place, 11 for second, and so on):
- AVG: 9.1
- HR: 10.2
- R: 10.6
- RBI: 10.5
- SB: 9.2
- W: 9.6
- S: 9.0
- K: 9.6
- ERA: 10.1
- WHIP: 10.1
Two key takeaways: One, is that you don't need to win every category, or even any category to win your league. What you need is fairly evenly distributed excellence. A top-three finish in every category pretty much guarantees you'll win your league, and even a top-four finish everywhere should get you close.
The other is that league-winning production was not evenly distributed, and that's not particularly surprising. The average first-place team finished higher in home runs than in steals, which makes intuitive sense. Every steal just means you got a steal (and maybe marginally increased your chances of getting an additional run); every home run directly increased your total in runs and RBI, as well as batting average. If you have to prioritize one thing, power will always be king.
I am a bit surprised that ERA and WHIP were the strongest categories for CBS Fantasy league winners, though. Given the relatively shallow nature of a 12-team league, I would have thought there might be more value in streaming pitchers to maximize your win and strikeout totals, at the potential expense of your ratios. Perhaps the relative strength of the position in 2024 in the middle and lower end made it easier to stream? Or maybe the presence of some dominant, lower-strikeout pitchers like Seth Lugo, Bryce Miller, and Shota Imanaga just played an unusually large part in the best team's success?
This brings me to one last thing to keep in mind, which is a simple axiom: You don't want to get caught fighting your last war. Which is to say, just because last year's results looked one way doesn't mean this year's results will be identical. Lugo, Imanaga, and Miller were all more or less Fantasy aces, with sterling ratios, without dominating in strikeouts, and that isn't a strategy you can necessarily expect to be sustainable every season.
15-team, NFBC Main Event Leagues results:
| R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | W | S | K | ERA | WHIP | |
| 1 | 1094 | 316 | 1067 | 227 | 0.261 | 99 | 86 | 1452 | 3.340 | 1.114 |
| 2 | 1063 | 302 | 1036 | 205 | 0.258 | 96 | 79 | 1416 | 3.473 | 1.141 |
| 3 | 1045 | 293 | 1014 | 192 | 0.256 | 93 | 74 | 1390 | 3.539 | 1.156 |
| 4 | 1031 | 286 | 993 | 185 | 0.254 | 90 | 70 | 1375 | 3.609 | 1.167 |
| 5 | 1015 | 279 | 980 | 179 | 0.253 | 89 | 66 | 1356 | 3.669 | 1.179 |
| 6 | 1003 | 276 | 968 | 172 | 0.252 | 86 | 63 | 1337 | 3.720 | 1.187 |
| 7 | 994 | 271 | 957 | 168 | 0.250 | 85 | 59 | 1323 | 3.771 | 1.200 |
| 8 | 982 | 265 | 943 | 163 | 0.249 | 82 | 55 | 1303 | 3.824 | 1.209 |
| 9 | 970 | 260 | 933 | 158 | 0.248 | 81 | 52 | 1286 | 3.875 | 1.216 |
| 10 | 959 | 255 | 918 | 153 | 0.247 | 79 | 48 | 1268 | 3.935 | 1.227 |
| 11 | 940 | 248 | 903 | 147 | 0.246 | 78 | 44 | 1249 | 3.993 | 1.240 |
| 12 | 924 | 244 | 891 | 142 | 0.244 | 76 | 40 | 1219 | 4.051 | 1.251 |
| 13 | 909 | 236 | 869 | 136 | 0.242 | 74 | 35 | 1179 | 4.112 | 1.264 |
| 14 | 880 | 228 | 841 | 125 | 0.240 | 69 | 29 | 1131 | 4.205 | 1.279 |
| 15 | 834 | 213 | 799 | 112 | 0.238 | 64 | 20 | 1030 | 4.351 | 1.310 |
