WNBA picks today: Best bets include Mercury-Storm spread, parlay

With four WNBA games slated for Friday, make sure to check out these WNBA best bets before making any picks

We have a monster WNBA weekend ahead, with 10 games stretched out from Friday night to Sunday night. Of Friday's four contests, two feature double-digit spreads and two of them are early-season rematches. The 3-0 Minnesota Lynx are the biggest favorites on the board over at DraftKings Sportsbook, as they're -14 over the winless Connecticut Sun at 7:30 p.m. ET. Then there's a trio of contests at 10 p.m., with the Las Vegas Aces (-12.5) hosting the Washington Mystics, the Golden State Valkyries battling the Los Angeles Sparks (-9.5) and the Phoenix Mercury squaring off against the Seattle Storm (-2.5). 

Looking to get in on WNBA betting at the best betting sites? Let's check out the top plays from this slate -- including a WNBA parlay -- with odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Storm -2.5 -110 (1 unit)

One of the biggest keys in sports betting is not overreacting to a small sample size. This line is the poster child of a one-game overreaction, so let's take advantage.

When the Storm faced the Mercury in Phoenix last Saturday, the Mercury opened at -3 and closed at +6. The line was already being bet down and then swung in Seattle's favor after it was announced Phoenix star Kahleah Copper would miss 4-6 weeks after having left knee surgery.

So what happened? The Mercury blew out the Storm by 22 points. Even after the Storm beat the Dallas Wings by eight points on the road next game and the Mercury squeaked by the Los Angeles Sparks at home on Tuesday, this line is at Storm -2.5. If this was a rematch in Phoenix, going from Storm -6 to -2.5 would be quite an adjustment in under a week. Instead, this is now a home game for Seattle, making this adjustment borderline insane given this game will be played with the same rosters. 

So let's evaluate why the blowout happened. One factor could be that the Mercury have a completely new roster from last season, making them a difficult opponent to prepare for in their first game. The Mercury added Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas this offseason to form a strong Big 3 with Copper, and that duo combined for 47 points in that opener. The Storm also shot 33.3% from the field, including a dismal 3-of-17 on their 3-point attempts. Seattle isn't an offensive juggernaut, but I'd be shocked if the Storm shot that poorly again. 

I think that familiarity with Seattle having already played Phoenix, the lack of depth the Mercury have (especially with Copper out) and this being the Mercury's first road game of the season set up a very strong spot to back the Storm here. Add in the fact that this is way too big of an adjustment from the first battle between these teams, and this is easily my favorite play of the slate.

Money-line parlay: Storm/Aces -112 (1 unit)
Aces -12.5 -110 (0.5 units)

The Storm are my clear favorite side on the slate, so I'll add a second unit on them to win outright along with the Aces taking care of business at home against the Mystics.

Washington got off to a surprising 2-0 start before falling to the Valkyries for the expansion franchise's first career victory. Golden State won that game despite shooting a dismal 31.9% from the field and making just seven of its 37 3-point attempts. That is hard to do, especially given the lower talent level on the Valkyries' roster.

The Mystics are a young team, and their two top rookies from the 2025 WNBA Draft have shined -- No. 3 pick Sonia Citron and No. 4 Kiki Iriafen. But make no mistake, the clear No. 1 option for Washington is led by veteran Brittney Sykes, who has averaged 26.3 points per game in the first three games this season after never scoring more than 15.9 PPG in the first eight seasons of her WNBA career. But if you can slow down Sykes, I don't think Citron and Iriafen aren't quite ready to take on lead responsibility for the scoring load. 

The Aces faced the Connecticut Sun last game, with Marina Mabrey the only double-digit scorer (14.4 PPG) returning to the Sun after an offseason that saw a complete roster overhaul. In that game, the Aces were locked in on Mabrey, and she only scored seven points on 3-of-11 shooting from the floor. 

Las Vegas does have questions surrounding its defense, but Washington doesn't have multiple weapons that can burn the Aces like stronger competition can -- such as the New York Liberty putting up 92 points against the Aces in their opener. With top Defensive Player of the Year candidate A'ja Wilson and coaching mastermind Becky Hammon, Las Vegas can definitely find a way to slow down Sykes and force other Mystics to beat them.

The Aces have a veteran group of Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young and Jewell Loyd that have combined for 21 WNBA All-Star appearances. I think facing that lineup will be quite the challenge for a younger Mystics team.

Season Record: 3-0, +4.83 units