Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Braves starter against Nationals

After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Tuesday's 16-game schedule

The Dodgers' Yoshinobu Yamamoto will look to stay hot when he takes the mound at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday to face the Arizona Diamondbacks. The 26-year-old Yamamoto (5-3, 2.12 ERA) has allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight of nine starts this season. The one time he allowed more than three earned runs came against the Diamondbacks on May 8. He will square off against Arizona's Ryne Nelson (1-1, 5.13). 

Sportsbooks have set Yamamoto's total strikeout player prop at 5.5 (Over -135, Under +112), while Nelson's is 3.5 (Over -128, Under +110). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Yamamoto Over 5.5 as a 2.5-star play on its five-star scale and Nelson Over 3.5 as a 4.5-star play.

However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Tuesday's 16-game schedule. There is one pitcher strikeout player prop that the model has rated at 5 stars and two rated at 4.5 stars. Here they are:

Spencer Strider Over 5.5 strikeouts (-103) vs. Nationals (6:45 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 7.8 strikeouts

The 26-year-old righty makes his first start since April 16 after spending more than a month on the injured list with a strained hamstring. In his only appearance this season he pitched well, striking out five and allowing two runs on five hits in 5.0 innings against the Blue Jays. On Friday he will face a light-hitting Washington ballclub that ranks 20th in the majors in batting average (.241).

Zack Littell Over 3.5 strikeouts (-126) vs. Astros (7:05 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts

This is a low number for this 29-year-old against a Houston team that has struggled this season against right-handers. The Astros have struck out 307 times against righties, the fifth highest total in the majors, and they won't have their best left-handed hitter, Yordan Alvarez, who's injured. Littell has had a quality start in each of his last three outings, and two starts ago he struck out five Brewers.

Dylan Cease Over 5.5 strikeouts (-104) vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.5 strikeouts

Even though Toronto does not strike out much (343 strikeouts this season, third fewest in the majors), Cease has soared over this number recently. He is coming off a 10-strikeout performance against the Angels. That came one start after fanning nine against the Yankees. He has gone Over 5.5 strikeouts in five of his last six starts and seven of nine starts overall this season. His whiff percentage of 32.8 ranks in the 91st percentile, according to Baseball Savant.