Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Blue Jays starter against Cardinals at plus odds

After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Monday's nine-game schedule

Two of the top teams in the National League West square off for the first time this season when the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers visit the San Diego Padres on Monday for the opener of a three-game series. Los Angeles (39-27) salvaged the finale of its three-game set against the St. Louis Cardinals with a 7-3 triumph on Sunday to maintain its one-game lead in the division over both San Diego (37-27) and the San Francisco Giants (38-28). The Padres edged the Milwaukee Brewers 1-0 in the rubber match of their three-game series.

Dustin May (3-4, 4.09 ERA) looks to win his third consecutive decision as he takes the mound for the Dodgers in Monday's opener. The 27-year-old right-hander, who has allowed three runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, is just 2-4 lifetime against San Diego but has registered 52 strikeouts over 59 innings.

The Padres counter with Nick Pivetta (6-2, 3.16), who is tied for fifth in the NL in victories. The 32-year-old righty, who is unbeaten in his last four turns, has fanned 37 batters across 27 1/3 frames in six career games versus Los Angeles, including one relief appearance.

Sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player props for Pivetta (Over -129, Under -101) at 5.5 and May (Over +106, Under -141) at 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates May Over 4.5 as a 4.5-star play on its five-star scale and Pivetta Over 5.5 as a 4-star play.

In addition to May, the model has found other good value on Monday's nine-game schedule. There are two other pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars, including another that would pay plus money. Here they are:

Mike Burrows Over 3.5 strikeouts (-157) vs. Marlins (6:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts

Burrows will be making the fourth start of his career after his major-league debut came in relief last season. The 25-year-old rookie right-hander failed to go Over this number in his first two turns in the rotation before coming up with a strong performance against the Houston Astros last time out. Burrows recorded his first win in that outing as he registered six strikeouts over 5 1/3 scoreless innings.

Jose Berrios Over 4.5 strikeouts (+117) vs. Cardinals (7:45 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts

Berrios has gone Over this number in each of his last two starts and seven of 13 overall this season. The 31-year-old Puerto Rican righty recorded five strikeouts over six innings against the Philadelphia Phillies in his last outing. Berrios has made five career starts versus the Cardinals, going 3-0 while fanning 36 batters across 31 1/3 frames.

Dustin May Over 4.5 strikeouts (+109) vs. Padres (9:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.5 strikeouts

May consistently has gone Over this number of late, recording five or more strikeouts in six consecutive starts. He has done so in all but two of his 11 turns this year and set a season high on May 27 by fanning nine batters over five innings against the Cleveland Guardians. May has registered at least five strikeouts in two of his last four starts versus the Padres after setting his career high with 10 across six frames against San Diego on Apr. 25, 2021. He has had some success against two of the Padres' top hitters, striking out Manny Machado six times in 30 at-bats and Fernando Tatis Jr. five times in 21 at-bats.