Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Athletics starter against Padres at plus odds
After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the four best pitcher strikeout props for Tuesday's 12-game evening schedule

The top two finalists in NL Cy Young Award voting last season face off Tuesday when winner Chris Sale and the Atlanta Braves host runner-up Zack Wheeler and the reigning NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies at Truist Park in the opener of a three-game series between the division rivals. Sale (0-1, 5.40 ERA), who led the National League with 18 wins, 225 strikeouts and a 2.38 ERA in 2024 en route to earning 26 of the 30 first-place votes for the Cy Young Award, is hoping to help get Atlanta break out of its early doldrums, as the club has lost eight of its first nine games this season. Wheeler (1-0, 1.38) set a career high with 16 victories and finished one strikeout behind Sale last year while posting a 0.95 ERA in three outings against the Braves. Philadelphia currently leads the NL East with a 7-2 record.
The Sale-Wheeler pitching matchup is only one of 12 on Tuesday evening's MLB slate. Some of the other top matchups include the Blue Jays' Easton Lucas (1-0, 0.00) opposing Garrett Crochet (1-0, 1.38) of the Red Sox, the Angels' Kyle Hendricks (0-0, 3.00) facing the Rays' Shane Baz (1-0, 0.00) and the Twins' Pablo Lopez (1-1, 2.25) squaring off against the Royals' Cole Ragans (0-0, 3.60).
For the Sale-Wheeler matchup, sportsbooks have set Wheeler's total strikeout player prop at 7.5, while Sale's is 6.5. Neither prop, however, rates better than 3 stars on the SportsLine Projection Model's five-star scale. According to the model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, Sale Over 6.5 strikeouts and Wheeler Under 7.5 both rate as 3s.
However, there are four pitcher strikeout player props for Tuesday evening that the model has rated at 4.5 or better, including two that rate as 5s. Here they are:
Brad Lord Over 2.5 strikeouts (+110) vs. Dodgers (6:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.5 strikeouts
The Dodgers struck out 11 times in Monday's series-opening loss at Washington and are one of four teams that have reached triple digits in strikeouts thus far this season with an even 100. Lord will be making his first major-league start following three relief appearances over the first 1 1/2 weeks of his debut season. The 25-year-old right-hander remains in search of his first strikeout in the majors but averaged 4.75 over 12 starts in Triple-A last year and is facing a Dodgers squad that has fanned 10 or more times in three of its last four contests.
Pablo Lopez Over 4.5 strikeouts (-138) vs. Royals (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.2 strikeouts
Lopez finished second in the American League in 2023 with a career-high 234 strikeouts in 194 innings but has recorded just eight over 12 frames in his first two starts this year. The 29-year-old Venezuelan has had success against Kansas City over his career, however, fanning 45 batters in 39 2/3 frames across six turns - five of which he won. Last season, Lopez registered 12 strikeouts over 13 innings while winning both of his outings versus the Royals.
Patrick Corbin Over 3.5 strikeouts (-107) vs. Cubs (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts
Corbin will be making his debut with the Rangers after enduring five consecutive dismal seasons with Washington. The 35-year-old left-hander recorded 238 strikeouts in his first campaign with the Nationals in 2019 but hasn't reached 145 since. However, he's facing a Cubs team that enters Tuesday having struck out a major league-high 107 times. Chicago's batters have fanned at least seven times in all but two of the club's first 13 games this year.
Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 strikeouts (+115) vs. Padres (10:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts
Springs is making his third start of the year and 12th in the majors since recording 25 for Tampa Bay in 2022. The 32-year-old southpaw fanned nine over six scoreless innings in his season debut against the Mariners. He struggled in his second outing, lasting only three frames versus the Cubs, but registered three strikeouts in that brief stint. The Padres haven't whiffed much thus far in 2025, as they entered Tuesday tied for 27th in the majors with 68 strikeouts, but 28 of those came over the first four contests of their current six-game road trip.