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The left ankle of Donovan Mitchell will have a significant impact on sports betting throughout Tuesday's NBA slate. The six-time All-Star entered Sunday off back-to-back games with more than 40 points, but exited after 12 points in 20 minutes with an ankle injury that plagued him during the season. He officially listed as questionable. Despite Mitchell being potentially sidelined, the Cavaliers are 7.5-point favorites at home in a win-or-go-home Game 5 for Cleveland, who trail the Pacers 3-1 in the series. Is it worth the risk to target other Cavaliers with NBA player props in that 7 p.m. ET matchup?

Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Denver Nuggets (+9.5, 221.5) at 9:30 p.m. ET in a crucial Game 5 with their series tied 2-2. Nikola Jokic has +185 odds to record a triple-double. Despite averaging a triple-double during the regular season, he's yet to record more than six assists in any of the previous four games against the Thunder, so how should he factor into making Tuesday NBA player prop bets? 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today's slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.

Jarrett Allen Over 12.5 points (-115)

The model projects the Cavaliers center for 14.2 points on Tuesday as Allen is averaging 14.3 points per game at home, going 25-20 on the Over, compared to his 12.7 ppg and going 21-24 on the Over on the road this season. The 6-foot-9 Allen went Over this total in two of his last three games. After scoring just two points and taking only one field goal attempt in a 20-point loss in Game 4, Oh expects a different mindset from Allen, especially with either a less than 100% or completely out Mitchell. Some sports betting apps have raised Allen's total points to 13.5 because of this, but others are still offering Allen Over 12.5 points at -115 odds.

"After doing next to nothing in Game 4 (two points in 20 minutes), we expect Allen to come out aggressively in Game 5," Oh said. "If the Cavs perimeter shots are not falling, it leads to more offensive rebounds and putback opportunities for Allen. Last season, this would have been a lock with his 16.5 average (58-23 Over), and I think the Cavs will get back to focusing on getting their core starters to lead them." 

Pascal Siakam Over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists (-112)

Siakam had 21 points, six rebounds and three assists to go Over this total in Game 4 in Indiana, and he's also gone Over this mark in Cleveland already this series with 17 points, eight rebounds and four assists in Game 1. Whether Mitchell is active or not, the Pacers should be additionally motivated to end this series as quickly as possible so Mitchell can't become healthier. With Indiana one win away from moving on to the Eastern Conference Finals, Tuesday could be their best chance to end it despite being on the road. 

Siakam has gone Over this total in four of seven games against Cleveland this year, with the regular season and postseason combined, and never had a PRA total fewer than 20 in those seven matchups. The 26.5 line is being offered by at least one sportsbook, while some sportsbooks have raised the line to 27.5. He should be well-rested after only playing 21 minutes in Indiana's Game 4 20-point victory. The three-time All-Star has gone Over his PRA total in seven of his last 10 road games against teams with a winning record, averaging a PRA of 30.0 over those contests. 

Alex Caruso Over 1.5 steals (+130)

Caruso has just one steal over his last three games combined, but in Game 1 at home against Denver, the 31-year-old had five steals. He had multiple steals in each of the final three games against the Grizzlies in Oklahoma City's first-round sweep. Caruso averaged 1.6 steals per game this season and has averaged at least 1.5 steals per game in each of the last four seasons. The model projects Caruso for 1.7 steals in what Oh views as a strong, plus-money value play for Tuesday.

"The Over is 33-29 (53.2%) this season, so you would think this line would be set closer to +100 or even -105, but oddsmakers typically do adjust bench players downward in the playoffs," Oh said. "But Caruso is not your average bench player. His two-way production and veteran leadership make him a lock to get over 20 minutes, assuming the game is not way out of hand. When he played over 20 minutes, the Over was 20-8 this season."